Roller coaster anyone?

I'm done. Done riding the ups and downs, twists and turns, and the intraday swings of the stock market. Some people say this is a bear market correction. I think it's death by a thousand cuts.

The Stock/Bond Market is telling of industries and the economy as a whole because it measures the equilibrium between consumer demand and supply. It also reflects investor sentiment. The 1999 technology sector crash was contained to high-growth but money-losing companies of Web 1.0. During the 2000 credit crisis, the pain was felt by financial companies and buyers of homes without down payments. The Federal Reserve and Treasury eased monetary policy. 2022 is bringing something different. The one-two punch of Covid and the Russian invasion of Ukraine are wreaking havoc on the world economy by choking off trade of basic supplies for food, consumer staples, and oil around the world. Pent-up consumer demand from the lockdown is not ideal in the face of supply scarcity. Faced with labor shortages, companies have to offer higher wages that increase operating cost which shrinks margins and leads to decreased investments. People are traveling again despite higher fares. Staple and discretionary items cost more due to supply constraints. There can't be a more perfect storm.

I believe this pain hasn't reached the bottom. There are no positive catalysts in the near future even if a conflict resolution in Ukraine is achieved by the summer. Interest rates are rising in the US which means credit card bills and adjustable-rate mortgages incurred during the pandemic will cost more. Ukraine and Russia combine for 25% of the world's wheat production while India imposed a ban on wheat exports. The longer the war, the more expensive food will be. Russia is the third-largest producer of crude oil which makes up 50% of gasoline. An oil embargo will limit the supply of raw materials. China's zero-Covid policy is certain to extend unlocking supply chains and global trade problems. Oh, and there is a shortage of truckers to pick up new iPhones from a cargo ship idle off the coast of Long Beach. Consumer demand is starting to strain so how long can we support the economy?

It is easy to put the blame on a few people but let's not forget that if a big economy sneezes, everyone catches a cold. There are now many big economies connected by global trade and most, if not all, are sneezing. We will never agree on who dropped the ball but everyone wants this roller coaster ride to end.